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Digitisation of the Economy

Q4 2023 Commentary

The excitement earlier in the year over Artificial Intelligence (AI) has now dissipated as investors search for profitable user cases beyond the makers of ever smaller and faster chips. In some areas the disruption potential is easier to see than the profit potential. The Nasdaq tech index, which fell 34% in 2022 recovered about half of that in Q1, and another 12% in Q2, dropped 1.5% in Q3 and rallied 20% in Q4… but performance was quite concentrated amongst a few giant companies and the lack of follow-through to AIM should perhaps not be a surprise.  

 

Persistent labour shortages across many countries should only accelerate the need for digital transformation. However budgetary pressures in many countries are putting pressure on public spending which is behind many larger projects. This is very noticeable in the UK where the NHS for example struggles to find the budget for investments despite potentially very quick payback- we understand that for example the Electronic Patient Records programme is being pillaged to pay for wage increases. Local authorities are under severe pressures and are not delivering. In the corporate sector higher interest rates are affecting companies’ budgeting decisions and the auto industry particularly has seen some pushing back of projects. Sondrel has been badly affected by project delays and has faced a cash crunch. Small companies sometimes find themselves faced with credibility and credit problems facing off against the procurement departments of very large potential customers and this can be a pressure towards consolidation. Investors should be aware that success in gaining contracts can create its own problems (in all sectors) – large customers tend not to be quick payers and working capital strains can be an issue.  

 

High profile data breaches and ransomware attacks were a feature of the latter part of the year. The British Museum’s problems were widely reported, and this may be positive for the cybersecurity sector, albeit we have now seen a number of small companies taken over. And as Crossword Cybersecurity found, customers can push back projects without much warning.  

 

Delays in procurement are creating some opportunities for those with deeper pockets – and across the piece we shall no doubt see more as consolidators seek either to buy revenues or to acquire particular areas of expertise. Patience should be rewarded.  

 

 

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