Tales from the Far End of the Bond Ladder

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At LGB, we believe in disciplined fixed income investing. Laddered portfolios constituted of fixed income investments with varying dates of maturity deliver steady income, liquidity and flexibility whilst minimising interest rate risk. Investors can combine investment-grade sterling bonds with LGB’s proprietary offering of high-yield medium term notes in order to enhance the overall returns of such portfolios.

LGB’s proprietary offering is usually focused on the shorter maturities, with our Medium Term Notes typically maturing after 1 to 3 years. However, sometimes it is interesting to look at the vertiginous heights of the ladder, and the very long maturities. Just as Jack (of Beanstalk fame) found a magic bean and indeed a dangerous giant when he ascended said beanstalk, we shall find opportunities and perils when we climb the ladder.  

In May 2020, the UK government issued £7bn of a 0.5% bond maturing in October 2061, the so called “TG61”. It has added to the issue since. By late 2021 – so before the Ukraine invasion – it had already halved in value, and with interest rates having increased significantly since it now trades around £25.50, representing almost a three quarters loss in value. Adding in deflation over the last five years and the paper loss is more like 80%. Who, you might reasonably ask, would have been mad enough to lend HM Government money on such terms? Sadly, if you are fortunate enough to have a defined benefit pension, it was probably your pension manager. A story for another day, perhaps. 

At the current level however, the TG61 represents an interesting opportunity, though not necessarily an opportunity only for gain. We felt it was worth looking at as an illustration of several curious aspects of the bond market.  

Why would anyone buy a 2061 (or an even longer maturity bond)?  

Good question. Insurance companies buy them to hedge out very long duration risks. Fund managers may consider them for duration management purposes, or possibly to trade given their volatility. Private investors may be interested for retirement planning, for children or grandchildren or for charitable purposes, but more likely is that their interest comes from the fact that the annual coupon is very low.

Why Low Coupon Bonds Appeal Where Tax Matters 

TG61 carries just a 0.5% coupon, i.e. annual interest rate, which is paid out to investors every 6 months. If held to maturity in 2061, investors would receive minimal income, however the capital gain would be substantial as the bond reverts to face value as it approaches its maturity. For bonds currently trading at roughly £25.50 per £100 nominal, as seen in the below table from TradeWeb, that accretion to par of £75 accounts for the majority of just under a 5% yield. 

Whilst interest received from gilts is taxable income, the capital gains, by contrast are currently tax free – see this HMRC guidance for more detail (LGB does not offer tax advice, and official policy and law on taxation can change). High-rate taxpayers, therefore, often favour long-dated, low coupon gilts precisely for this advantage. The advantage does not apply for gilts held within ISAs or SIPPs.  

The Anomaly in Plain Sight 

Bonds maturing around the same date as TG61 trade at closely clustered yields. However, TG61 stands out from the other gilts surrounding it with its yield-to-maturity sitting nearly 40 basis points lower than adjacent long-dated gilts. This premium pricing likely reflects its more advantageous tax status. With a running yield (the incidence of the coupon on the current price) accounting for less than half the return, it is in a different position to its peer group.   

Source: TradeWeb 

The Risks and Opportunities: Duration, Volatility, and Patience 

TG61 has exceptionally long duration – that is, not only does it have a long maturity, but the investor must wait longer to receive the majority of the return compared to a high coupon gilt with a similar maturity. This longer duration means the price of the bond will be more sensitive to changes in the wider interest rate environment. Just a one-percentage point interest rate fall (for relevant maturities, not the short-term interest rate) could move its price up by around 33%. A one percent increase would cut the price by circa 26%. This is not for the fainthearted investor. If you believe that the government’s budgetary problems will worsen, and that the bond vigilantes will penalise it in the market, then this is something to steer well clear of. If on the other hand you think that the market is over-discounting the problems, then there may be an opportunity here. If you consider that the main risk is inflation, then it may be worth looking at index-linked gilts which we will turn to in a future article.  

Final Thoughts 

Fixed income fund managers running evergreen portfolios must take into consideration the duration of bonds, as they will be required to buy and sell bonds to meet subscriptions and redemptions and keep the fund running. As a private investor, one can adopt a buy and hold strategy. This means that each bond is purchased and held until maturity. The benefit of this that any volatility of the bond prices during the life of the bond will not impact the investor’s return. Cash flows and returns are predictable once the bond has been purchased, as the investor simply waits to receive the coupon payments and the eventual repayment of the bond at par at maturity (subject to any credit risk).  Trading fees are also kept low due to one-time purchases, rather than buying and selling.

This being said, long duration conventional bonds do not offer any protection against inflation, so if you are pessimistic on that front they should be avoided. If you would like to explore how long-duration gilts might complement your income portfolio or if you seek tailored fixed income strategies, we would be pleased to assist.