Protecting Savings Against Inflation with Index-Linked Gilts - Is Now a Good Time?

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Introduction

Index-linked gilts are a type of bond issued by the UK government that offer investors protection against inflation (the US equivalents are called TIPS). With longer dated paper currently offering real yields of around 2.3%, vs. negative 2.5% only four years ago, they certainly deserve private investors’ consideration.

Index-linked gilts are designed to ensure that the purchasing power of savings is maintained over time, making them an attractive option for those concerned about sticky inflation. In particular, investors with inflation-sensitive expenses or liabilities, such as retirees funding long-term living costs, may benefit from their structure. They are however not straightforward to trade, nor do they always behave as they might be expected to.

The market is large – over £600bn – and there are 35 issues outstanding, one maturing almost every year to 2058 and a few beyond that. Historically, the main investors in “linkers” have been insurance companies and pension funds. For the technically minded, the Debt Management Office offers extensive information on how they operate.

What are Index-Linked Gilts?

Definition: Index-linked gilts are bonds issued by the UK government that are linked to the Retail Prices Index (RPI). Except that as of February 2030 they will be aligned with CPI, which excludes mortgage costs and has historically been lower than RPI.

Interest Payments: The interest payments (coupons) on these gilts are adjusted in line with inflation, meaning they increase as inflation rises, comparing the latest RPI against the base RPI used when the gilt was first issued. The coupons are paid semi-annually. All issues since 2005 have adjusted on the basis of a three month lag. The coupons are typically low and represent a small part of the overall return, as this list shows.

Real Yields: The real yield is calculated as the implied yield to maturity in excess of inflation. This is now positive across the market. Were it to go negative, the bond prices would rise.

Principal Repayment: At maturity, the principal amount repaid is also adjusted for inflation on the same basis, ensuring that the value of the investment is preserved. The adjustment can therefore be calculated on a continuing basis so that the current inflation-adjusted value of the principal is known.

Benefits of Using Index-Linked Gilts

Positive Real Returns: Although the long-term real return on inflation-linked gilts – historically around 2.5% per annum – has been lower than that of equities (for example, the FTSE All-Share has delivered approximately 3.5% per annum after inflation over the past two decades, before tax), their appeal lies in the stability and predictability of those returns. As a source of anchored, inflation-protected income, inflation-linked gilts can provide valuable diversification within a portfolio, particularly when balanced against the volatility and drawdown risk inherent in equity markets.

CGT Status: Gilts have been exempt from capital gains tax since 1986 – though of course this could change. Only the coupon is taxed, and the coupons are often a small part of the return.

What about Price Sensitivity?

Changing Interest Rates: Like conventional gilts, inflation-linked bonds are sensitive to changes in interest rates – higher rates generally translate into lower prices. However, this effect can be partially offset if rising rates coincide with higher inflation expectations, since the inflation adjustment to principal and coupons increases the bond’s future cash flows in real terms.

A real example: Take the UK Treasury 0.125% Index-Linked 2056 (TR56), issued on 30 November 2016 and maturing on 22 November 2056. Its clean price peaked at around £244 in November 2021 but has since declined to £51.13. On a dirty price basis (including accrued inflation uplift), the bond fell from £285 to approximately £78.50, representing a substantial economic loss for holders. However, this sharp price decline has pushed the real yield up to 2.53%, compared with roughly –2.5% at its peak price. In other words, the fall reflects not only rising nominal rates but also the repricing of inflation expectations and the real yield curve.

Is this the same for all maturities?: Not entirely. Shorter-dated index-linked gilts tend to be more influenced by inflation expectations than by interest rate changes. As a result, some shorter maturities have actually risen in price as near-term inflation assumptions have increased – the inflation effect more than compensating for the rise in nominal yields. Conversely, long-dated issues like the TR56 are more sensitive to real interest rates, and therefore exhibit greater price volatility when market rates move.

How do they Trade in the Market?

The mystery of Clean and Dirty Pricing: Like conventional gilts, most inflation-linked gilts are quoted on a clean price basis – that is, excluding accrued interest. For example, if you purchase a 5% conventional gilt just before its semi-annual coupon date, you will pay an additional 2.5% of accrued interest on top of the quoted price, which compensates the seller for interest earned during the period. Thus, while the clean price may be £100, the dirty price (the amount actually paid) would be £102.50. You would then receive the full coupon payment when due, restoring economic parity. For linkers, the calculation is more complex. In addition to accrued interest, buyers must also pay for the inflation uplift that has accrued since the bond’s issue date. This adjustment can be substantial, particularly for bonds that have been outstanding for several years during periods of high inflation – in some cases, the inflation factor alone can exceed the quoted clean price.

What does this look like?: Consider the UK Treasury 0.125% Index-Linked 2028 (T28), issued in June 2018 and maturing on 10 August 2028. The bond currently trades at a clean price of £98.80, but since issuance the RPI uplift factor has risen to 1.45574. As a result, the dirty price – i.e. the amount an investor would actually pay – is approximately £143.80, including around £0.20 per £100 nominal in accrued interest.

Why the change from negative real yields?: For much of the past decade, inflation-linked gilts traded at negative real yields due to heavy demand from defined benefit pension schemes and insurance companies seeking to hedge inflation-linked liabilities. These institutions were willing to accept sub-inflation returns in exchange for the protection such assets provided. However, as the defined benefit sector has contracted and many schemes have moved into surplus or buy-out positions, structural demand for linkers has diminished significantly. This change, alongside higher policy rates and improved fiscal credibility, has contributed to the sharp rise in real yields across the linker curve.

Using Index-Linked Gilts in a Laddered Portfolio

Laddering: Given the relatively regular pattern of index-linked gilt maturities, it is feasible to construct a laddered portfolio designed to provide a predictable, inflation-protected income stream – effectively creating an annuity-like profile. This approach mirrors how insurance companies structure their portfolios to match long-term annuity liabilities. While the low coupon structure of linkers may limit their appeal in taxable accounts, they can offer attractive characteristics compared with – or as a complement to – a conventional gilt ladder. Conversely, higher-coupon conventional bonds may be more tax-efficient when held within ISAs or SIPPs.

Deferred Ladder: A ladder of inflation-linked gilts can also serve as a deferred income strategy. For instance, an investor planning for retirement could structure maturities so that the first rung of the ladder – the initial bond maturity – aligns with their target retirement year, thereby securing an inflation-adjusted cash flow profile for the ensuing years.

Other Considerations and Risks

Lower Initial Yields: Index-linked gilts typically offer lower nominal starting yields than conventional gilts. As a result, they provide less immediate income and have limited compounding potential. However, this structure also means reduced reinvestment risk, since a smaller proportion of total returns depends on the reinvestment of coupons.

Interest Rate Risk: Like all long-duration bonds, linkers remain sensitive to changes in real interest rates. A further rise in rates would likely depress prices, as seen during the sharp market adjustment of 2022. Conversely, a normalisation or decline in yields could result in capital gains. The longer the maturity and lower the coupon, the greater the bond’s duration and the more pronounced this effect becomes.

Inflation Risk: If inflation turns out lower than expected, the returns of linkers may lag that of other investments. Also, while designed to protect against rising prices, there are other ways to hedge against inflation: equities for example can offer natural inflation hedges through earnings and dividend growth.

Opaque Pricing: As mentioned above, linkers are shown as clean prices which are of limited use – getting real (dirty) prices still requires phone calls or access to a professional tools such as a Bloomberg terminal (which LGB & Co maintains).

Changes in the Rules: The move to benchmarking against RPI rather than CPI is intended to work in the Treasury’s favour, though if housing costs declined the reverse would be true. A change to the Capital Gains Tax exemption on gilts – though not currently proposed – would negatively affect the after-tax attractiveness of linkers and other sterling bonds.

Conclusion

Index-linked gilts offer an effective means of protecting savings against inflation, particularly at a time when they are priced to deliver real returns that are historically attractive by the standards gilts market. By providing a reliable income stream that rises in line with inflation, they enable investors to preserve purchasing power and strengthen the long-term resilience of their portfolios. However, these instruments are not without complexity, and understanding their structure and pricing nuances requires careful analysis – though, in the current environment, the potential reward may justify the effort.