AIM Stops Underperforming - But Stay Realistic

AIM Markets

The 30th anniversary of the AIM market seems more marked by introspection than celebration. The market managed in the aftermath of the Trump Tariff sell-off to plummet to a 50% fall from its 2021 high, albeit there has been a strong recovery since then. Delistings continue. The London Stock Exchange’s claim that “over the last 5 years, 45% of all capital raised on European growth markets has been on AIM” is more a reflection of a common malaise across Europe than a matter of pride for the UK.

Whilst in the first half of the year AIM outperformed the broader UK markets (ignoring dividends, which would have reduced the gap), the longer-term underperformance has been very poor. The AIM 100 index rose 7.1% in H1: the AIM All share up 6.7%. The FTSE 100 was up 6% and the Mid250 up 4.6%. On a five-year view the numbers are down 18.6%, down 13.5%, up 42% and up 24.8%.

We asked leading market guru, ChatGPT, if the tide had turned. It suggested some reasons for optimism (see the AI-generated words, not ours, in green). Certainly, unpicking these opinions provides a necessary corrective, which we have provided below each reason.

1. Valuation Gap and Oversold Conditions

“Research from boutique broker Turner Pope indicates that AIM is currently “dramatically oversold,” trading nearly 40% below its 10-year average. This valuation gap suggests potential for a market correction, especially as economic conditions improve and investor sentiment stabilizes.”

It is usually simplest to assume that a trend will stay in place till its underlying causes change. Mean reversion is glib but not useful as a predictive tool. Undervaluation can and does persist. The mean will converge on the trend over time, rather than in some magical way changing the trend’s direction. So, looking positively, the modest recovery so far this year may suggest the time has turned. Turner Pope is incidentally a small firm active in the microcap sector.

2. Improved Liquidity and Trading Activity

“Liquidity on AIM has been gradually improving. In May 2025, the market saw the highest percentage of market value traded since June 2021. Additionally, the number of new company joiners and the amount of capital raised are moving up, albeit from very subdued levels.”

Yes, this is encouraging. Though the trading activity is symmetrical – buyers and sellers must match. Poor performance of the market has led to a shrinkage of specialist funds investing in AIM: retail investors tend not to be contrarian. So, for example Premier Miton’s UK Smaller Companies Fund (Gervais Williams is co-manager) shrank from £55m to £40m in the year to 31 March.

3. Increased M&A Activity

“Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) activity on AIM is picking up. In 2024, 28 AIM companies were acquired, with 11 of those bids coming from private equity firms. This trend indicates that investors are recognizing value in AIM-listed companies, potentially leading to a more active market.”

Yes, M&A is having an increasing impact as the market shrinks – at the margin.
The 27 companies taken out in the year to March represented 4% of the starting total number of companies listed on AIM, vs the 33 in 2014-15 only 3%.

In Q1 this year Peel Hunt estimated that the bids on AIM represented 1% of the number but 3% of the value of the market.

4. Potential Rate Cuts and Economic Support

“The Bank of England is expected to lower interest rates through the rest of 2025, which could positively impact AIM. Historically, AIM’s fortunes have closely tracked UK base rates, and rate cuts could provide a favorable environment for growth stocks.”

Hmm…the government’s inability to control spending rather militates against significant interest rates cuts. If you do believe they are coming, then the bond market may be the place to lock in returns. And it’s not clear what economic support is being made available to AIM companies.

5. Political and Structural Support

“There are ongoing efforts to reform the UK’s capital markets to support smaller companies. Initiatives like the Mansion House Compact encourage major UK pension schemes to allocate a portion of their assets to private equity and early-stage companies, which could bring much-needed liquidity back into the market.”

Double hmmm….The previous administration’s Mansion House agenda has been followed but it is unclear as to what practical effect it is having- in theory AIM shares will count towards institutions’ weighting in private assets. They may prefer to buy entirely private instruments so as not to be affected by valuation swings. The AIM Malaise is to some extent an extension, a fortiori, of UK institutions’ reluctance to invest in their home market. The government seems happy to grant tax breaks to pension funds and ISAs irrespective of whether the cash flows to Nvidia or stays at home.

There has been strong pushback from institutions at any restriction on their freedom to manoeuvre. We continue to see reductions in UK exposure: earlier this month Scottish Widows was revealed to be cutting its managed pension funds’ exposure from 12% to 3%.

Moreover, the reduction of IHT reliefs on AIM shares was bad enough, but Angela Rayner’s leaked proposal to remove it entirely is worse- and she is widely tipped to succeed Keir Starmer if he loses his grip on power.

A Few Other Positives Come To Mind:

  • We are seeing a hint of activist management appearing. Christopher Mills’ launch of the Achilles Investment Company earlier in the year is intended to shake up and crystallise value in REITs and investment companies trading at heavy discounts, and has already had some successes.
    • Brokers are talking of a renaissance in fund raisings
  • However many of them are in the Bitcoin as Treasury Management niche. Unverified claims are that they account for over half of the equity raised in London this year.
    • Some of the companies we follow are finding they are able to raise money on the back of concrete progress, and share price moves. 

However, the so-called “working capital” raises, which are just to staunch losses, and raises to support apparently open-ended R&D projects, remain very difficult.

Implications:

  • It is worth backing the winners and not expecting struggling companies to recover…
  • …though look out for catalysts for change – particularly new shareholders with deep pockets and relevant track records
  • Enjoy higher interest rates while they last! We continue to show a regular deal flow of high-yield fixed income (MTN) opportunities, alongside our bond list of corporate bonds and gilts. Prices are updated on a weekly basis on the LGB Deal Hub. Please get in touch if you would like to discuss this in more detail.